Covid the final nail in the coffin for Malls and fragrances???

[seekritdude]

So I got a question for you guys. So what do you think covids impact on the fragrance game will be in the long run? Will things get cheaper? Stay the same?

A interesting point about this is, here in america where I am, malls have been dying for a long time now. Recently I heard that when malls open back up, you will have to wait in line before you get in, be checked that you are ok. You have to wear a mask the whole time you are there. And you have to stand at least 10 feet away from everyone at all times. With a limit to how many people can get into the mall....

So if we are to think from a certain perspective fragrances are a social thing right? Malls are social as well. One of the main opportunities people even get to smell fragrances is going to the mall to try stuff etc. So if we have less opportunities to smell and test fragrances, less chance to even wear them for the social aspect....

Well.. What is covids effect on fragrances in the long term do you think?

Hopefully you see what im getting at. I mean fragrances already are admittedly pretty petty. So what do you guys think is gonna happen?

If theres a thread about this my bad

 

[bl00drunzcold]

I think everything will be alright. Brands are moving towards more online focused experiences due to Covid. Myself, I don't wear any fragrances for a social aspect. I wear what I wear for me and nobody else. I also don't go to malls and there's no fragrance shops near me, so I blind buy. I'll continue to do what I do already.

 

[HFMIII]

So what do you think covids impact on the fragrance game will be in the long run?

In the long run I think Covid will have minimal impact.

Sure there are stores that went bankrupt, but I'm guessing you live in an area that hasn't yet re-opened. I went to Neiman's at the Galleria here in Houston last weekend, there were lots of people out shopping. It seems many people are out trying to get things back to normal.

 

[stuigi]

A major mall here in South Florida has opened with masks required and sales associates wearing them as well. The fragrance departments were open with the testers removed from reach, but the SAs were willing to spray them on tester strips for you and then disposing of them.

 

[Diamond Joe]

SAs were willing to spray them on tester strips for you and then disposing of them.

That kind of stinks. I was hoping the fallout from this would be that the SA decants a ml or two for you, and you can take it home and try it out on your own - like Sephora does.

 

[Rick58 & Beth62]

In the past 125 years the world of commercial fragrance has survived two world wars, countless smaller ones with impact to both supply and demand and a world pandemic of N1H1. The pendulum remains in motion.

 

[lemonlimelady]

The closest real mall to me is an hour and a half away. The Nordstrom there is closing due to Covid which is really sad because it was a nice store and at least had different fragrances than the little Sephora we have in my town.

 

[hednic]

Will things get cheaper?

No. Just the opposite IMO.

 

[MFfan310]

I don’t think that the COVID-19 pandemic will kill the fragrance industry. If anything, it will lead to more digitization of it. Remember that COVID-19 has led analysts to accelerate the date of Amazon being the largest retailer in the US from 2023 to 2020, that Macy’s and JCPenney are closing large amounts of stores, and that even Nordstrom is closing 16 stores.

You know those sample orders from Luckyscent that we do as Basenoters? I suspect that we will see people start testing fragrance in that fashion - by ordering samples online, trying them on, and choosing to buy a bottle. I guess we Basenoters were a decade ahead of what the rest of the US may end up doing, sort of like how Tom Ford was a decade ahead of his time with YSL M7.

I also see more manufacturer/distributor-direct sales and more brands using distributors to reach out to small boutiques (not necessarily ones focused on beauty exclusively) and get them to offer niche fragrance. Witness how Europerfumes bought Twisted Lily not long after becoming the new US distributor for Xerjoff to add to their portfolio of brands - opening Xerjoff to new US e-commerce, major retailer, and small business points of sale at once.

Finally, I see some brands encouraging direct sales by refunding the purchase price of samples towards a full bottle. MFK does this, of course, but indie brand Hyde + Alchemy where I live does the same for their natural oil-based perfumes. I expect more to follow suit.

The next 18 months should be interesting in this industry and ones to watch. Fragrance sales won’t die... they will simply evolve.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 26264036]

Myself, I don't wear any fragrances for a social aspect. I wear what I wear for me and nobody else. I also don't go to malls and there's no fragrance shops near me, so I blind buy. I'll continue to do what I do already.

Same here. It likely will not have an effect on the way I buy fragrances or any significant impact on the way the brands I buy from operate. That said, this is largely because most of my purchases are from indie perfumers, which are already operating in a different fashion than the designer or high-end niche houses. I think it will certainly impact fragrance houses that specialize in the type of designer fare that is designed to smell great for the first minute on a tester strip. Those houses will have a hard time eliciting blind buys with little or no cult following, poor online reviews, and lazy marketing.

 

[Cheetah1919]

Our malls in Cincinnati are open, and pretty much running normally. No entry checks, or anything out of the ordinary, just associates wearing masks. Some stores in the mall are limiting the amounts of people at a time, but no long lines or big deals. Most people aren’t wearing masks either. I don’t think too much will change in the long run in regards to the fragrance industry.....but who knows.

 

[Shiny Beast]

No. Just the opposite IMO.

Unfortunately true :\

 

[seekritdude]

Well then what about something like a recession in the "popularity" of fragrances if you will? I mean you guys can say fragrances our for ourselves all we want, and certainly I wear fragrances for myself too. But id say a large amount of people do wear fragrances for other people. If we are in a time where we can't even go to the mall to smell stuff to try reasonably speaking with out a hassle. Do you expect regularly dudes and girls to go out there and want to buy the new fragrance as regularly as before? When we have less opportunity to use it in a sense?

And what about the side of maybe a recession? Think about it from this perspective. We have dudes like Jeremy fragrance, dude is a scam artist and it still irks me he made those fake videos and somehow the community supported him after he stole their money. Completely fucked up. But from another perspective, think about the out reach he has, and maybe from a certain perspective has helped fragrances by bringing them to a bigger potential audience. Hell just you tube in general. I sure can see fragrances all over youtube way more than I could when I originally got into fragrances. So from that side though, would we expect these kinda dudes to have as much content to make? And if theres not as much content to make, that has to hurt the fragrance industry as well from a certain perspective right?

 

[RedRaider430]

I haven't smelled a fragrance in a store in years.

As for me, I will keep buying fragrances, as usual.

 

[Varanis Ridari]

1917 Coty Chypre de Coty released
1918 Caron Tabac Blond released
1919 Williams Aqua Velva released
1919 Guerlain Mitsouko released

All did fine against the Spanish Flu

1930 Joy Jean Patou released
1931 Mennen Aqua Velva released
1934 Caron pour un Homme released
1934 Dunhill Cologne released
1936 Dana Canoe released


This was during the Great Depression and they survived.

Indoor shopping malls barely existed then too.

Therein you'll find your answer.

 

[Diamondflame]

Since anosmia seems to be one of COVID-19 symptoms, it could potentially boost the sale of fragrances. :wink: But probably not in the same way many were accustomed to.

 

[cheapimitation]

This article I posted recently somewhat addresses how the industry might adapt:
http://www.basenotes.net/threads/477443-NYT-How-Will-We-Buy-Our-Perfume-Now

For sure it will not be the death of fragrance, but I do worry about how smaller brands (and small businesses in all sectors) will weather the current financial catastrophe.

 

[PStoller]

1917 Coty Chypre de Coty released
1918 Caron Tabac Blond released
1919 Williams Aqua Velva released
1919 Guerlain Mitsouko released

All did fine against the Spanish Flu

1930 Joy Jean Patou released
1931 Mennen Aqua Velva released
1934 Caron pour un Homme released
1934 Dunhill Cologne released
1936 Dana Canoe released


This was during the Great Depression and they survived.

Indoor shopping malls barely existed then too.

Therein you'll find your answer.

I basically agree, but to play devil’s advocate, 1) we naturally remember the prominent survivors, not those who perished in relative anonymity; and 2) the business, and business model, is different from that of the early to mid 20th century.

The fragrance industry will survive, but surely some perfumes—and perfumers—will not.

 

[Varanis Ridari]

I basically agree, but to play devil’s advocate, 1) we naturally remember the prominent survivors, not those who perished in relative anonymity; and 2) the business, and business model, is different from that of the early to mid 20th century.

The fragrance industry will survive, but surely some perfumes—and perfumers—will not.

Sure, I was just using my big macro worldview lens here. Never said there wouldn't be casualties.

 

[Dothraki]

Well then what about something like a recession in the "popularity" of fragrances if you will? I mean you guys can say fragrances our for ourselves all we want, and certainly I wear fragrances for myself too. But id say a large amount of people do wear fragrances for other people. If we are in a time where we can't even go to the mall to smell stuff to try reasonably speaking with out a hassle. Do you expect regularly dudes and girls to go out there and want to buy the new fragrance as regularly as before? When we have less opportunity to use it in a sense?

And what about the side of maybe a recession? Think about it from this perspective. We have dudes like Jeremy fragrance, dude is a scam artist and it still irks me he made those fake videos and somehow the community supported him after he stole their money. Completely fucked up. But from another perspective, think about the out reach he has, and maybe from a certain perspective has helped fragrances by bringing them to a bigger potential audience. Hell just you tube in general. I sure can see fragrances all over youtube way more than I could when I originally got into fragrances. So from that side though, would we expect these kinda dudes to have as much content to make? And if theres not as much content to make, that has to hurt the fragrance industry as well from a certain perspective right?

People have been using fragrances for thousands of years. Before youtube, before malls, before glass was invented. It would only affect the people who go to the mall to smell the new Bieber flanker on the shelf. Is that really a loss?

 

[Ken_Russell]

Malls and perhaps some of the smaller flagship stores may be affected, but perhaps most of the surplus fragrances, but also costs, labor etc. regarding their sales, marketing will go online, simply following and hastening an already existing trend.
However do not think that fragrances and fragrance houses will disappear due to temporarily lower sales figures.

 

[Scents And Sense]

I don't really think malls are going to close forever.

I certainly hope not, at least: they're like my only way of trying out new fragrances (I absolutely hate buying samples).

However, fragrance will not die out, that's a fact. Fragrance has been around for thousands of years and has persevered through wars, The Great Deprssion, etc. It's been around before malls, the internet.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Mike Pompeo made a slip and called Covid an ‘exercise’ on international TV. Make of that what you will.

Their intended affect has been made on the world economy - fragrance, malls, jobs, debt included.

Businesses open and businesses close, prices go up and prices go down but the price and cost of living keeps rising one way or another.
The wheels on the bus go round and round...

 

[dealt7faux]

It will probably be rough sailing for a while, but there's too much money still to be made for the fragrance industry to give up without a fight. Even with most everything still closed around here fragrances haven't missed cash cows like Christmas.

The mall here is still closed, with Target open.

There used to be 3 malls around here, but now there's only one. It's been long rumored that the remaining mall survives because Pyramid keeps cutting Target a deal on the rent and because Macy's owns their building outright. I only care about that mall because of Sephora.

The online fragrance sellers don't seem to be hurting all that much. Other than a few exceptions nobody online has had any exceptional discounts on offer.

 

[broguesforsir]

Well, there is no longer an excuse for weak perfumes as long as social distancing is in operation :wink:

As for malls and shops in general: not for me whilst restrictions are in place but people will still buy perfume - the effect of marketing and advertising on sales suggests many people outside ‘enthusiasts’ buy fragrance with their eyes, so that is one factor to consider.

 

[lilioka]

Hopefully everything would go back to relatively "normal" at some point, but I'm afraid prices will keep getting higher. That just seems to be the tendency lately.
Since the beginning of the pandemic many discontinued fragrances vanished from the outlet sites a lot faster than I expected. On the bright side, I secretly hope soon people will start selling on eBay the duplicates or blind buys they got in panic buying mode during the pandemic.

 

[Danny Mitchell]

I just heard about Nordstrom, yesterday, closing several stores. According to them, this will help their business by cutting underperformers, but I've heard that before. The Nordstrom near me is quite large but there isn't a lot of merch. Everything is spread out pretty far, which looks nice. But when it comes down to options, say if I'm shopping for a new coat, the selection is minimal.

 

[RPLens]

I despise malls. The SA's try to push you to quickly buy an expensive bottle without proper testing.
I'll just buy spray samples and discovery kits through the internet.

 

[techt]

Since anosmia seems to be one of COVID-19 symptoms, it could potentially boost the sale of fragrances. :wink: But probably not in the same way many were accustomed to.

:lolk:

 

[jabar]

1917 Coty Chypre de Coty released
1918 Caron Tabac Blond released
1919 Williams Aqua Velva released
1919 Guerlain Mitsouko released

All did fine against the Spanish Flu

1930 Joy Jean Patou released
1931 Mennen Aqua Velva released
1934 Caron pour un Homme released
1934 Dunhill Cologne released
1936 Dana Canoe released


This was during the Great Depression and they survived.

Indoor shopping malls barely existed then too.

Therein you'll find your answer.

Who was buying perfumes in the 1910s? Who was buying perfumes in the 30s?

The fragrance industry has shifted away from marketing exclusively to those who could afford haute couture to the masses. The burden of the two World Wars did not significant affect those who were their primary customers back then, and many designer houses were able to survive and slowly expand. Today, I'd venture a guess that the significant proportion of revenue is coming from the middle-class and service industry. With this rather unprecedented pandemic, pandemic response, and immediate economic impact, I'd postulate:

- For customers, less disposable income available to purchase perfumes, and/or less desire to allocate disposable income for perfumes
- For companies, delays and further de-risking of new releases. on the designer end, expect less innovation.
- LVMH re-evaluates extent of physical stores, especially Sephora
- Private "niche" companies, especially those without well-embedded distribution deals, will struggle and may collapse
- There might be stock sell-offs to make up for lost revenue, but afterwards, prices will continue to rise as companies match supplies with decreased market demand
- Designer divesting of perfume lines will continue (e.g. designers selling divisions to Coty, EA, L'Oreal)

I'm pretty ambivalent about all of the above.

 

[Andy the frenchy]

So I got a question for you guys. So what do you think covids impact on the fragrance game will be in the long run? Will things get cheaper? Stay the same?

Mall will slowly die, and e-commerce will become the standard (if not already).

There will be inflation to compensate for the money printing necessary to finance the covid relief money to citizen and businesses, and that will automatically result in price increase. That said, for fragrances, given the very high volume of new houses/releases on a daily base in the last 3-5 years, there will be a lot of unsold stocks and fragrance houses bankrupt. Thus liquidation sales, and that may bring prices down at discounters (something already going on with very high end houses frags going for 3-4X less than their retail price (cf Terenzi, Nishane...), and compensate for the general increase of prices.

Only houses who will be bought by big cosmetics corps will survive, with sporadically some excpetions for super-indie houses) assuming these do not make a primary living from fragrances, but more a hobby.

 

[Beck]

Nothing. A vaccine is on the way. In the worst scenario, if the vaccine fail, I doubt people will respect and follow recommendations for a long time. Unfortunately many people just understand the severity of the situation when they have to pay any fine or when they lose any very beloved one. Some just in the last situation or not even this way.

 

[Franco65]

My local Sephora closed after lockdown! Now the mall can be pronounced dead!

 

[Trilby Lark]

Our local mall was scheduled for reopening last week but that reopening is now indefinitely postponed due to civil disorder. So, there is now a new reason to not feel safe in a mall.

 

[slpfrsly]

Really interesting thread.

On the surface, yes, it has been. At least for some, particularly the older, grander malls that were built with the world as it was imagined in the 80s in mind.

But some of the newer complexes are doing really well. Whether it's a result of the multinationals still finding customer footfall enough of a draw to continue renting, or (which is perhaps more interesting) more upmarket malls are popping up, with a different, more affluent clientele than the family-oriented malls of the past.

Various malls have suffered due to crime and violence, becoming aweird blend of urban battleground, wasteland, and normal commercial shopping centre. Theft, particularly in America, is common, and the penalties so low (particularly during 2020) that crime rates went through the roof - despite the fact a majority of the population was isolating at home for large parts of the day and night!

I cannot see how perfumery can continue being sold outside of large metropolitan areas, with well-supervised and secure stores. That said, criminality is so abundant and common, that it even happens in Harrod's and it barely ruffles a feather. Such a thing would have been notorious for years and would have defined the decade it took place had it happened 100+ years ago; now it is forgotten before the end of the week.

I think the way Asia - both near and far - has taken to imitating and improving on the American mall is a glimpse in to the future. Higher trust societies, with greater punishment for criminality, are better equipped to protect against the social decline most of us in the west have experienced. As a result, they're also more likely to build them in the first place.

So I got a question for you guys. So what do you think covids impact on the fragrance game will be in the long run? Will things get cheaper? Stay the same?

A interesting point about this is, here in america where I am, malls have been dying for a long time now. Recently I heard that when malls open back up, you will have to wait in line before you get in, be checked that you are ok. You have to wear a mask the whole time you are there. And you have to stand at least 10 feet away from everyone at all times. With a limit to how many people can get into the mall....

So if we are to think from a certain perspective fragrances are a social thing right? Malls are social as well. One of the main opportunities people even get to smell fragrances is going to the mall to try stuff etc. So if we have less opportunities to smell and test fragrances, less chance to even wear them for the social aspect....

Well.. What is covids effect on fragrances in the long term do you think?

Hopefully you see what im getting at. I mean fragrances already are admittedly pretty petty. So what do you guys think is gonna happen?

If theres a thread about this my bad

Fragrance is an interesting one, as it translates poorly to the internet and online shopping - unlike other goods, such as clothing. You'd think that the tester/blotter experience would be valuable enough to continue bricks and mortar perfume shops - whether standalone boutiques, or stands within department stores - for years to come. But there's no way they can stand the test of time when the perfumes themselves are behind locked glass doors, and the bottles are encased in security tagged plastic boxes. That is a step on the way to such shops no longer doing business.

So, I think malls are good in places like Dubai and Singapore, in airport terminals, and perhaps in choice locations within major cities like NY, Paris, London. But outside of that, I expect the mall experience to continue to decline. Most UK town centres simply never recovered after 2008, and now every high street looks identical: vape shop, Turkish barber, Gregg's, fried chicken shop, betting shop, vape shop...

It would be interesting to see what other people's experiences are around the world, if/how things have changed since we (sort of) got back to normal after 2020.

 

[seekritdude]

Well while I was living in japan just recently for awhile fragrances are still the same... in that, still really only sold at specialty places like maybe the brand it self so to speak. Not a lot of places where you can find fragrances otherwise... Maybe at second hand stores since those are huge in a japan if youve ever been to japan and you can find some designer stuff randomly just there out of nowhere selling a bottle of something well random...

Other wise only other tme I can even recall seeing fragrance I guess is if you go to something like a don quijote and thats mostly just very obscure stuff. Like japan only kinda thing, and very very random designer stuff..

While I was in Turkey lots of stuff compared to America though. As well as even real stores asked if I wanted to haggle over prices which I thought was pretty bizarre. Like even at the mall in the I forget what the store is off the top of my head but basically the equivalent of something like macys in america, but their fragrance selection is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay bigger than america. And even there when I was just randomly looking at fragrances sales rep would ask if I wanted to haggle over a price.. And I was like what really?

Kinda interesting.

​

 

[RPLens]

Here in the local malls, security has been improved massively because of theft.

Let's not forget that this pandemic made life a lot worse for normal people.

Not that they want to make you poor of course, it's nothing to worry about.
Just don't forget your boosters, alright.

 

[Hugh V.]

I try to buy fragrance in actual fragrance stores that usually happen to be in some kind of mall. Yeah, for a brief time it seemed all too convenient to just order it on Amazon and have it delivered in two days. But once that became the norm, criminals seized on that new norm so their poaching packages from every house. Additionally, you're having numerous rando "gig" workers doing who decide to do Amazon deliveries for a week, delivering packages to your house, and who knows what they're scoping out in terms of your home layout, what you're ordering, etc. Great way to survey a block and having an excuse to do it.

Nah, I'm going back to actual, physical stores. I can get samples in fragrance shops, and the prices are usually pretty close if not the same, as online.

Here in the local malls, security has been improved massively because of theft.

Covid and masking up unfortunately normalized normally-suspicious behavior (wearing a face mask in broad daylight) that only helped to make it easier for thieves to commit theft in a surveillance society.

I remember when going to places like Ross didn't have security guards. Now, it's becoming the norm to have your face recorded, security guards at the entrance, AND still have to worry about being robbed.